It’s that time of year again. Your significant other gives you that look as they realize they are about to return to TV widow status. Your friends and colleagues begin their smack talk about last year’s results. OTAs have started and preseason football is just about here with all of its historic inadequacies and the… (gak!) helpful addition of replacement refs who miss touchdowns, clotheslines and a variety of other non-critical plays are a distant memory as is the lock down. Whether a sufficient number of injury-prone running backs and questionable quarterbacks earn starting jobs or not, we will again have fantasy football and the euphoria and agony that begets living vicariously through people in helmets.
Some of you were victorious last year. Some have won consistently for years in fact. Congratulations. Keep up the good work. If you find a few kernels of knowledge in this prose all the better. My commentary is directed towards other groups: (1) the people who lost in the playoffs on a last second field goal, fluke touchdown or QB fumble; (2) the clued-in under performers who don’t understand why year-after-year their squads end up stinking up the joint despite reading every blog and cheat sheet known to man and finally (3) the folks who finish in the middle of the pack and are just sick and tired of being “just” average.
For all of you, I offer five suggestions that may enhance your chances of winning that crown. We’ll deal with a standard 10 team league using standard scoring for this particular post (no individual defense players or ppr) and an individual commissioner as opposed to ESPN or NFL-managed leagues.
#1–LOCK UP A BIG-TIME QB BEFORE GETTING YOUR THIRD RBS/WRs. Every year, I get emails and read stories about people grabbing RBs early sometimes taking running backs in each of the first four rounds. The story goes, you need RB production and there aren’t enough to go around so take some extras as insurance so you have a better chance of landing the breakout performers. These same geniuses will sit in a bar or stand by the water cooler and comment on the pass-happy state of the league. Hmmm…..if passing is more important then maybe, just maybe we should be drafting the folks that throw the ball. No, I’m not advccating jumping up to select a QB round one but if you want to win in a standard scoring league, you are WAY better off picking the RIGHT running backs and a top arm than being the guy who has two great RBS that NEVER play except the bye week. Having the best bench at the end of the year is a consolation prize not the key to winning. So which QBs are worth the reach. It depends on your draft board. Do the math. Look at last year’s total points and week-to-week production (yeah I know it sounds like homework but you really want to beat that bozo in the Bears shirt this year). Then figure out how many of them provide you with the margin you need to succeed. Some experts discuss a big four (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, P. Manning) while others feel QB now has a depth of 10 or more serviceable fantasy arms (adding Ryan, Kapernick, Luck, RG III. Stafford and Wilson or Romo to the list). If that risk/reward is more headache than you need and you want to keep your old grab 4 RBs first strat, just remember, 14 of the top 18 rated running backs are coming off of injury, have friends in the backfield or might hold out. But grabbing players that will spend 50% or more time on the bench, when you know there will be 3 or more RBs (rookies, re-treads, etc) who come out of nowhere that you can grab on waivers instead of a top QB is just silly. Look back at league results. I will be stunned if your playoffs didn’t feature any teams with one of the big four QBs. QBs matter.
#2–DROWN OUT ALL THE NOISE EXCEPT WHAT THE QBS SAY The talking heads are paid to talk. The bloggers are paid to blog. Coaches use the media to play mind games and motivate players. All of the experts are paid to predict. What do all these people have in common? None of them are paid to play the game. Two years ago, I reached to pick up Darren Sproles early in several drafts and got ridiculed by my fellow owners. If you read columns last year, you heard people say “No one saw Darren providing more production than Adrian Peterson.” WRONG. I did. Why? Because Drew Brees said so. There were multiple interviews where Brees explained that he vigorously recruited Sproles to take over for the void left by Reggie Bush. He then predicted that Darren would have a big year maybe even bigger than Bush had had with the team. At that point, I didn’t care about tales of Darren being only a 3rd down back or the crowded backfield in New Orleans. The QB said this was his guy so the “so-called” experts opinions were irrelevant. I had found my secret weapon and was on my way to victory. Last year, I heard Ponder saying how amazing Adrian Peterson looked. That same summer, we got word that Jay Cutler had a great rapport with Brandon Marshall still and Peyton Manning was melding with Decker and Thomas. In most of my leagues, my starters included P. Manning, All Day, Marshall, and either Decker or Thomas. Needless to say, I did very, very well. Listen carefully to the local reporter interviews and adjust your draft boards accordingly. Remember: the guy throwing the ball has a lot of influence over who ends up with it. He’s sees what’s really going on unlike the so-called experts.
#3–ASK YOUR COMMISSIONER FOR A POSITION ASSESSMENT RULE Unlike with Kordell Stewart back in the day or Brad Smith who were both listed as QB/WR. Some major players who line up all over (e.g. Harvin, Hernandez et al) are only listed as a one position player. Ask your commissioner for a rule that lets owners “re-code” players in mid-season if there production reflects a nontraditional usage and 50% of owners approve., If it gets approved (and your fellow owners haven’t read my blog), you have an inside track on what could be a late round running back steal of the draft.
#4–PAY ATTENTION TO THE TIGHT END POSITION The 2011 numbers posted by Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham were nothing short of epic. Many “experts” said that they could not repeat that production but were still the elite of that area. In fact, some say that one or the other can’t repeat and suggest drafting the other. Having a great tight end and a great FLEX starter will make the difference between winning and losing many weeks. I picked up Dennis Pitta as insurance for Gronk/Graham injuries in many leagues and Dennis did well by me in 2012. This year, I would not touch Gronk with a ten-foot pole. Not because he won’t produce but because I don’t know when he will be injured but he has a proclivity for that happening around the time I need a TE for the playoffs. Ironically, I used to LOVE the oft-injured other TE in New England. Hernandez. He was behind only Graham and Pitta on my board before his legal troubles took over. Also, monitor your draft carefully. If you can grab 2 top 10 tight ends that means one or more teams in your league will be without a top 10 tight end which could serve as a tremendous advantage down the road. SLEEPER PICKS: I think Fleener (Ind), Bennett (Chi) are way undervalued and good late round options. DEEP SLEEPER PICKS: After punishing the Giants for a favor mistake and two other free agency transactions, New England has quietly assembled tremendous talent to back up their top two TEs. If you can determine who #2 (probably Ballard) and #3 are on the depth chart before your draft, that would be a great final round pick or an early week waiver wire pick-up. Gronk WILL miss time this season. Belichick believes it and took out insurance. So should we.
#5–SET UP YOUR TIEBREAKERS AND STICK WITH THEM–For the autopick drafters, lots of people look at their first 5-10 rounds carefully but then rely on the “best player available” based on other people’s listings and thoughts to fill out their rosters. They often target players they want very carefully. However, many don’t target which players they DON’T want which I think is just as important. For most of my leagues, my draft board looks nothing like the cheat sheet top 300 or the ESPN rankings. There are certain teams, types of players and situations that I will do my best to avoid. It’s not that my rules are always right. It’s that if gives me a basis for making choices when players are close in leagues where I know the tendencies of those I’m playing against. I almost never pick rookies unless I saw them a lot in college and felt like they were “can’t miss” pros, I take players on better teams over players on bad teams, I align my choices with coaches’ preferences (featured back on teams that like to run the ball, wideouts on teams that like to pass) and I prefer triple threat options (run, catch passes and return game) for my flex options. Might I miss out on this year’s Cam Newton or RG3? Yep. Can’t deny it. But my theory is that if I develop winning formulas and stick to them, they will pay off more often than not. Winning in fantasy is all about risk management. Figure out what your preferences are (beyond the cheat sheets and 2012 stats and 2013 projections that everyone has) and stick to them.
Some examples of useful tie-breakers to consider. How do you feel about veteran players who moved to new teams (Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, and Wes Welker come to mind)? Who’s in a contract year (I think MJD wants to get paid)? What about team’s with new coaches? Will they be more likely to pick a player and stay with them because it’s their first year or more likely to experiment?
Then there’s the competition situations. Are Montee Ball< David Wilson and CJ Spiller over-valued because of Moreno, McGahee, Brown and Jackson respectively? I don’t see how the Bills can sit Fred Jackson and the coaching staff so far is talking tandem so I’m big on grabbing him late despite what the numbers think. Is Chris Ivory likely to stay healthy for the first time in his career and carry the load? Who knows. He’s a Jet so he’s automatically downgraded on many owners’ boards. Sorry, Gang Green fans.
In my mind, the most interesting tie-breaker is what to do with Chip Kelly’s Eagle players from Michael Vick on down. If you have an early draft before a starter has been named, I wouldn’t take Vick as my starting QB but I might take a flier if he fell to the 12th round or later as a back-up. I don’t know if the Eagles will win a lot of games but with all the emphasis on speed Kelly is putting in, I do know that they plan to have lots of big play opportunities which pushes those position players higher on my board than they might be for other people.
Whatever you do, trust your Board, pay attention and don’t waiver. A draft pick is a terrible thing to waste.
ALRIGHT, GO GET ‘EM AND GOOD LUCK THIS SEASON. 
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