I’m angered by supposedly smart people with access to billions, vast research databases, and lots of consultants self-righteously repeating the errors of the 2016 Presidential election. Let’s start with the Dems. #5–TRUSTING POLLING WITHOUT CONTEXT-The San Antonio Express News reported that Julian Castro, received a big bounce in national polls just as he failed to qualify for the next debate. This received NO coverage on major cable networks or in big urban markets. By contrast in mid-November, The Des Moines Register poll claimed Buttigieg moved into the top spot. Everyone ran that story. It fit a narrative. Yet the Register polled 500 people. 64% of those polled were white, upper-middle class, college-educated voters–Mayor Pete’s base. Does MAYOR PETE LEADING IN A SMALL POLL OF HIS BASE grab you? Thought so. No one explains sample size or demographics misleading strategists, activists and the average voter. At this point in 2008, Obama was polling at 8%. Three months earlier, he was at 4%. Experts, please stop acting like you know everything. It eliminates candidates way too early.
#4–FOLLOWING THE MONEY–Jeb Bush’s 2016 war chest was 10x larger than any other Republican. Bush was the first to exit the race. Clinton outspent Trump 10-1 nationally. She lost. Yet newscasters focus on fundraising even though half the field DISAVOWED large donors. Is money important? Yes. Is it decisive? Not in the last THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. If news outlets devote one hour each week to how many field offices volunteers, and staffers each candidate had, instead of references to a good “ground game” we’d be better off. Americans might learn who is organizing locally, inspiring others and looking, dare I say it, presidential.
#3–MISHANDLING PEOPLE OF COLOR–CNN and MSNBC both constructed a montage of Kamala Harris flip flops on Healthcare on the heels of her rise in the polls. They felt like Republican attack ads. NO other candidate received such a montage not even Biden. Black people who wouldn’t vote for a prosecutor still detested the treatment of a qualified Black female Senator. Since Harris withdrew and blacks refuse to come around to Senator Warren or Buttigieg, pundits pivot to “Oh they just don’t KNOW the candidates yet.” MSNBC went through an embarrassing period where black commentators yelled at their white talking head colleagues whom applauded Mayor Pete’s “I couldn’t get it done” line as “authentic”. Black people heard abject failure. The next few days, no black guests appeared one-on-one with white guests on the major shows. Two-on-two panels were the daytime norm to avoid further onslaught. Being smart is not sufficient to understand how race factors into the economy, healthcare and policing. Black folks have little faith in well-thought out plans with no empirical evidence. Now, some argue momentum that “blacks have gotten on-board in the past with candidates after a win in Iowa”. REALLY?? Uhhh… that was OBAMA! With no belief that white people would ever vote for a black man, many were unwilling to vote unless the heartland and the South were ready as well. Warren still reverts to class to explain racism too often. She has the policy chops but lacks insight into whiteness even as she has mended some fences for her indigenous roots faux pas. Mayor Pete’s situation is worse. My Caucasian friends see an Oxford-Harvard grad who served in the military, gay, well-spoken, sincere [the anti-Trump], and an outsider from Washington. Black folks see the Mayor of the 300th largest US city, disastrous employment & education policies, and six years of declining relations between police and African Americans. When some gave him a chance, he used stock photos of Africans to forefront his new Black American agenda], stumbled painfully describing educational inequity and can’t point to a single concrete model of Black empowerment he’s created in South Bend that can be exported nationally. “Experts” dismissal of black excitement [not just their votes] should be of concern to the DNC. African Americans are the base of the Democratic party. Dems forget that at their peril.
#2-RELYING ON TRUMP’S CHARACTER TO WIN–I’ve heard on blogs, television, Twitter and in person that surely Americans won’t re-elect a man who is such an obvious criminal idiot. NEWSFLASH: Dems tested that theory in 2016…and lost. The American public willingly elected a man who revealed himself as a serial liar daily, an abuser of women on the TMZ tape, made slurs about Gold Star families, federal judges, female celebrities, black politicians, people with disabilities, foreign leaders and children. Voters cared about the economy, judges, their hatred of Hillary, and a government that had forgotten about them. Everything Democratic strategists see as revealing Trump’s shortcomings, a segment of the country sees as Trump keeping his promise to shake up the status quo. A status quo, incidentally, that has screwed millions over for decades, decreasing their investment in institutions. Every time, a Dem says Trump has broken his promise to his voters, they look at the stock market, the unemployment numbers, the judicial appointments, re-doing NAFTA, the assassination of bad guys, a new crime bill, movement on prescription drugs, the America First statements, and even the Wall as indications that the Democrats still don’t get it and just want to refer to them as the “dumb, racist base”. I’m encouraged when candidates use phrases like “kitchen table issues” but they must stop returning minutes later to discussions of character, impeachment and the criminal doings of Trump cronies in the Cabinet. Healthcare not high n mightiness is the pathway to win this election.
Which brings me to #1–PLAYING TO WIN Whether Supreme Court nominations or elections, Republicans play to win. When Dems complain about corruption, abuses of power, voter suppression, and other dirty tricks, Republicans will point to certain Democratic misdoings and claim the bright line the Dems draw is blurry. They’ll console themselves with being able to form policies for the next decade they believe in as their “dirty tricks” succeed. Rather than debate those ethical conundrums here, I would like to advise Democrats to stop beating themselves. In 2016, Republicans ran as their nominee, a candidate with unfavorable percentiles in the high 60s–a record. Not to be outdone, the Dems picked the only candidate that ALSO had unfavorables in the high 60s as their nominee. HISTORIC IN THE WORST POSSIBLE WAY! Then, handlers assumed since she was smarter and better prepared to be president than the game show host, it was her destiny to win. Rather than connect her with the American people, they “managed” her image and appearances hiding her when they could’ve done what her husband did when he appeared on late night playing sax and MTV. Yes, she’s not great with people but her incredible passion about helping and justice was hidden by a campaign team that lost sight of the American voter in the malaise of analytics and polling data. They ran hard and ran scared but they were always running the wrong way even when Midwestern lawmakers warned them of the coming storm. In 2020, Dems are doing that with issues and campaign finance. Trump hands the Dems immigration as an issue. Dems can say Putting Children in Cages is wrong. Separating families is immoral. The US shouldn’t be a human rights abuser that Amnesty International tracks like a two-bit dictatorship. That’s an easy, SIMPLE narrative for 80-90% of the American people. Instead, some advocate eliminating ICE & customs checks, decriminalizing border crossing putting a CLEAR WIN back in doubt. Trump handed the Dems healthcare. Trying to eliminate coverage for 20 million Americans is bad. Removing protections for pre-existing conditions literally kills people. Again, an easy, SIMPLE narrative that works for 60-70% of voting Americans and ranks for many as their most important issue. Instead, some Dems advocate for eliminating private insurance making millions jobless, extending benefits to illegal aliens, and spending $30 trillion on healthcare which could push the economy into depression. Everyone having health insurance is a good goal but none of that happens if the Dems don’t defeat Trump and re-take the Senate. Sanders and Warren talk about needing a huge movement but how do you build that with positions that feel untenable to a sizable portion of the population? The “we just have to fight and convince them” falls short based on the wisdom of past elections. Dems–stop believing you can have your cake and eat it, too.
When we move past issue giveaways to campaign finance, everyone seems obsessed about billionaires determining the race AND billionaires IN the race. Does any expert doubt that if Steyer or Bloomberg said they were for overturning Roe V Wade and more tax breaks for the rich they would be crushed in the primaries? Of course not. Elections are about message. Spending doesn’t cover up a crummy message. If either wins, it’s because others lost sight of the REAL QUESTION. Dems proudly claim that they’re best at tying their hands behind their backs so Trump’s path is easier. “I won’t take any money from millionaires and billionaires to help me win the most important election of our time.” “Well I won’t advertise on Facebook even though it’s the most cost-effective way to reach millions of voters and share my message”. Bennet is doing both so the best candidate [I’ll defend that another time] trails horribly. Each remaining Dem enjoys the moral high ground against Trump. Focus on what wins not what’s self-righteous. NETWORKS SHOULD ASK EVERY CANDIDATE WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT DEFEATING TRUMP OR PUTTING IN PLACE YOUR AGENDA FOR THE AMERICAN PUBLIC? Anyone who answers their agenda or the pointless response “both” is living in LaLa Land and jeopardizing a win in 2020.
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